Pétrole: marée noire sur la croissance ?

Elena Stancanelli (), Valerie Chauvin (), Guillaume Chevillon (), Odile Chagny (), Hélène Baudchon (), Gael Dupont (), Catherine Mathieu (), Christine Rifflart (), Danielle Schweisguth (), Hervé Péléraux (), Mathieu Plane, Xavier Timbeau, Eric Heyer, Matthieu Lemoine, Paola Veroni (), Amel Falah () and Sabine Le Bayon ()
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Elena Stancanelli: OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po, THEMA - Théorie économique, modélisation et applications - UCP - Université de Cergy Pontoise - Université Paris-Seine - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, IZA - Institute for the Study of Labor - Institute for the Study of Labor
Valerie Chauvin: OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po
Guillaume Chevillon: OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po
Odile Chagny: Centre Etudes & Prospective - Groupe ALPHA
Hélène Baudchon: OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po
Gael Dupont: OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po
Catherine Mathieu: OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po
Christine Rifflart: OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po
Danielle Schweisguth: OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po
Hervé Péléraux: OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po
Paola Veroni: OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po
Sabine Le Bayon: OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po

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Abstract: Since early 2004, oil prices have increased by 50% as a combined result of a demand shock, tensions on production capacities and supply disruptions. The surplus of wealth from oil importing to exporting countries nears 100 bn dollars (0.3% of OECD GDP) in the whole year. Households' real income should decrease by 0.3 point in the euro zone and by 0.5 point in the US. According to our oil price forecasts (33 dollars a barrel by the end of 2005), GDP growth should be reduced by 0.4 point in 2004-2005. Should prices remain at 50 dollars throughout 2005, growth in industrial countries will be further impaired (0.6 point with a monetary policy response), but developing economies will suffer more. Oil producing countries should increase their imports and the reintroduction of petro dollars on financial markets should hold international interest rates down.

Keywords: Oil prices; Productive capacities; Soaring prices; Prix du pétrole; Capacités productives; Flambée des prix (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2004-10
Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://sciencespo.hal.science/hal-03458791v1
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Published in Revue de l'OFCE, 2004, 91, pp.203 - 215. ⟨10.3917/reof.091.0203⟩

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Working Paper: Pétrole: marée noire sur la croissance ? (2004)
Working Paper: Pétrole: marée noire sur la croissance ? (2004)
Working Paper: Pétrole: marée noire sur la croissance ? (2004)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hal:spmain:hal-03458791

DOI: 10.3917/reof.091.0203

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