Tensions under control

Pressions dominées

Xavier Timbeau, Hélène Baudchon (), Odile Chagny (), Valerie Chauvin (), Guillaume Chevillon (), Gael Dupont (), Amel Falah (), Eric Heyer, Sabine Le Bayon (), Matthieu Lemoine, Catherine Mathieu (), Paola Veroni (), Hervé Péléraux (), Mathieu Plane, Christine Rifflart (), Danielle Schweisguth () and Elena Stancanelli ()
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Hélène Baudchon: OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po
Odile Chagny: Centre Etudes & Prospective - Groupe ALPHA
Valerie Chauvin: OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po
Guillaume Chevillon: OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po
Gael Dupont: OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po
Sabine Le Bayon: OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po
Catherine Mathieu: OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po
Paola Veroni: OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po
Hervé Péléraux: OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po
Christine Rifflart: OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po
Danielle Schweisguth: OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po
Elena Stancanelli: OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po, THEMA - Théorie économique, modélisation et applications - UCP - Université de Cergy Pontoise - Université Paris-Seine - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, IZA - Institute for the Study of Labor - Institute for the Study of Labor

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Abstract: Output growth is robust in almost all areas of the world, with world GDP expected to rise by 5% in 2004 and 4% in 2005. Growth will remain buoyant in emerging Asian economies although it is expected to slightly decelerate under the effects of the recent strong increases of oil and industrial raw materials prices. The effect of oil prices on industrial economies will be limited, with US output growth to be cut by 0.3% this year. US monetary conditions will remain accommodative despite rising interest rates, while the fiscal stance will become slightly restrictive in 2005. US GDP will rise by 3.5%, the imbalances on the US budget and current accounts remaining unchanged. Euro area GDP growth will reach 2.4 %, with monetary policy staying accommodative at the area level and the fiscal stance being almost neutral.

Keywords: World economy; Growth; Économie mondiale; Croissance (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2004-10
Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://sciencespo.hal.science/hal-03458794v1
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Published in Revue de l'OFCE, 2004, 91, pp.11 - 36. ⟨10.3917/reof.091.0011⟩

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Working Paper: Tensions under control (2004)
Working Paper: Tensions under control (2004)
Working Paper: Tensions under control (2004)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hal:spmain:hal-03458794

DOI: 10.3917/reof.091.0011

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