Croissance sans châtiment

Guillaume Chevillon (), Catherine Mathieu (), Christine Rifflart (), Hervé Péléraux (), Mathieu Plane, Xavier Timbeau, Christophe Blot (), Eric Heyer, Marion Cochard (), Matthieu Lemoine, Paola Veroni (), Amel Falah () and Sabine Le Bayon ()
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Guillaume Chevillon: OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po
Catherine Mathieu: OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po
Christine Rifflart: OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po
Hervé Péléraux: OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po
Paola Veroni: OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po
Sabine Le Bayon: OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po

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Abstract: Gone is the early decade's turmoil, growth is back on a sustainable path. The expected 2005 slowdown turned out benign in the US, Latin America and Central and Eastern Europe, hardly noticeable in Asia, absent in Japan which emerged out of deflation. Prospects for 2006 and 2007 should confirm this. Disequilibria have had no major impact: the hike in oil prices has not fuelled inflation; central bankers have maintained their credibility, this kept long term interest rates low. As a result, housing markets have proved buoyant and savings rates have decreased, thus providing an effective transmission channel for a possible rise in interest rates. US Current account is becoming abysmal; disequilibria settle and push growth further. The storm should stay at bay so long as faith in people's and countries' situations remains.

Keywords: Croissance mondiale; Économie mondiale (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2006-04
Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal-sciencespo.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-03459164
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Published in Revue de l'OFCE, 2006, 97, pp.13 - 31. ⟨10.3917/reof.097.31⟩

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Working Paper: Croissance sans châtiment (2006)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hal:spmain:hal-03459164

DOI: 10.3917/reof.097.31

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