Découplage en douceur

Catherine Mathieu (), Christine Rifflart (), Danielle Schweisguth (), Hervé Péléraux (), Mathieu Plane, Xavier Timbeau, Christophe Blot (), Eric Heyer, Marion Cochard (), Matthieu Lemoine, Paola Veroni (), Amel Falah () and Sabine Le Bayon ()
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Catherine Mathieu: OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po
Christine Rifflart: OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po
Danielle Schweisguth: OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po
Hervé Péléraux: OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po
Christophe Blot: OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po
Paola Veroni: OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po
Sabine Le Bayon: OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po

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Abstract: The world economy has proved to be particularly resilient to various shocks and global imbalances since the Internet bubble burst in 2000. The 2005 slowdown turned out to be shorter and smoother than expected and world economy is back on a high growth path in 2006. The reversal of the American real estate market is the main source of worry for 2007. We expect however the US economy to land softly. The housing market would adjust to a temporary excess supply without degenerating into a severe crash. Long term interest rates would be kept low thanks to subdued inflationary pressures and the prolongation of Asian central banks interventions, moderating the impact on world growth. In 2007 the US economy ceases to be the main engine of growth, relayed by Asia, Japan and to a lesser extend Europe.

Keywords: Croissance mondiale; Déséquilibres; Ralentissements (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2006-10
Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal-sciencespo.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-03459230
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Published in Revue de l'OFCE, 2006, 99, pp.13 - 30. ⟨10.3917/reof.099.0011⟩

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Working Paper: Découplage en douceur (2006)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hal:spmain:hal-03459230

DOI: 10.3917/reof.099.0011

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