Retour de flamme

Xavier Timbeau, Christophe Blot (), Marion Cochard (), Amel Falah (), Eric Heyer, Sabine Le Bayon (), Matthieu Lemoine, Catherine Mathieu (), Paola Veroni (), Hervé Péléraux (), Mathieu Plane, Frédéric Reynés (), Christine Rifflart () and Danielle Schweisguth ()
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Christophe Blot: OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po
Sabine Le Bayon: OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po
Catherine Mathieu: OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po
Paola Veroni: OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po
Hervé Péléraux: OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po
Christine Rifflart: OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po
Danielle Schweisguth: OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po

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Abstract: The US subprime mortgage crisis degenerated into a generalized financial turmoil at the end of 2007. The systemic risk has been prevented by the prompt reaction of central banks proceeding to cash injections, repurchase of bad loans and interest rates cuts by the Federal Reserve. The US economy will be the most affected, but the loosening of monetary policy combined with a fiscal stimulus should dam up a recession. Growth in emerging countries will decelerate but only marginally thanks to a solid domestic demand and a cleansed financial situation. The euro zone will be penalized by the appreciation of the euro and negative wealth effects, but growth should remain close to its potential. A credit crunch should be avoided as banks prudential constraints are not saturated at the macro-economic level.

Keywords: Économie mondiale; Croissance; Banques (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2008-04
Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal-sciencespo.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-03459802
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Published in Revue de l'OFCE, 2008, 105, pp.91 - 116. ⟨10.3917/reof.105.0117⟩

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Working Paper: Retour de flamme (2008)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hal:spmain:hal-03459802

DOI: 10.3917/reof.105.0117

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