Croissance mondiale: essai transformé

Xavier Timbeau, Hélène Baudchon (), Guillaume Chevillon (), Marion Cochard (), Amel Falah (), Eric Heyer, Sabine Le Bayon (), Matthieu Lemoine, Catherine Mathieu (), Paola Veroni (), Hervé Péléraux (), Mathieu Plane, Christine Rifflart (), Danielle Schweisguth (), Elena Stancanelli () and Gael Dupont ()
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Hélène Baudchon: OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po
Guillaume Chevillon: OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po
Sabine Le Bayon: OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po
Catherine Mathieu: OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po
Paola Veroni: OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po
Hervé Péléraux: OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po
Christine Rifflart: OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po
Danielle Schweisguth: OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po
Elena Stancanelli: OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po, THEMA - Théorie économique, modélisation et applications - UCP - Université de Cergy Pontoise - Université Paris-Seine - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, PSE - Paris School of Economics - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École nationale des ponts et chaussées - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, PJSE - Paris-Jourdan Sciences Economiques - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École nationale des ponts et chaussées - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, IZA - Institute for the Study of Labor - Institute for the Study of Labor

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Abstract: Driven by the USA, China and developing countries, world growth should stay high in 2005 and 2006 and progressively spread to other areas. In industrial countries, except in the euro area and Japan, the engines for growth are active fiscal policies combined with loose monetary policies that act through the housing markets and household debts. Heavy American disequilibria no longer pose a threat: they are reducing. Similarly, the progressive increase in oil prices should not have a major impact so long as household consumption offsets it via debts. Driven by private investment and consumption, US growth should reduce to its potential and be less dependent on fiscal policy. Inflation should remain under control. In a buoyant global environment, the euro area, dragged down by Germany and Italy should remain the laggard.

Keywords: Croissance mondiale; Pétrole (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2005-10
Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://sciencespo.hal.science/hal-03462204v1
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Published in Revue de l'OFCE, 2005, 2005/4 (95), pp.13-35. ⟨10.3917/reof.095.0011⟩

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Working Paper: Croissance mondiale: essai transformé (2005)
Working Paper: Croissance mondiale: essai transformé (2005)
Working Paper: Croissance mondiale: essai transformé (2005)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hal:spmain:hal-03462204

DOI: 10.3917/reof.095.0011

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