France: reprise à bas régime !

Valerie Chauvin (), Guillaume Chevillon (), Gael Dupont (), Hervé Péléraux (), Mathieu Plane, Eric Heyer and Matthieu Lemoine
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Valerie Chauvin: OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po
Guillaume Chevillon: OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po
Gael Dupont: OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po
Hervé Péléraux: OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po

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Abstract: Following near zero growth in 2003, recovery has taken up in 2004 with an expected GDP increase of 2.5 %. Consumption constitutes the main engine for growth in a weak environment of low purchasing power - caused by a stagnant job market and accelerating inflation - where households, helped by low interest rates, resorted to borrowing and spending their previously accumulated savings. For growth to last over 2005, rates must therefore remain low, and investment and job creation need to finally catch up, thus fostering consumption. The present corporate financial health should allow 2.6 % GDP growth in 2005, which will in turn reduce unemployment and boost wages. Significant uncertainties remain though, both internationally (major oil crisis, global slowdown...) and, albeit to a lesser extent, internally (accelerated deficit-targeting fiscal crunch, already forecast to contribute – 0.4 % to growth; or house price bubble bust).

Keywords: Politique budgétaire; Croissance; Économie française (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2004-10
Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal-sciencespo.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-03462273
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Published in Revue de l'OFCE, 2004, 91, pp.37 - 83. ⟨10.3917/reof.091.0037⟩

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hal:spmain:hal-03462273

DOI: 10.3917/reof.091.0037

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