France: croissance entravée

Guillaume Chevillon (), Gael Dupont (), Hervé Péléraux (), Mathieu Plane, Eric Heyer and Matthieu Lemoine
Additional contact information
Guillaume Chevillon: OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po
Gael Dupont: OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po
Hervé Péléraux: OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po

SciencePo Working papers Main from HAL

Abstract: Following the lowest yearly growth of the French economy since the 1993 recession, 2004 witnessed a recovery. With a 2.4% GDP increase owed mainly to household consumption growth in a sluggish context (a low purchasing power and a weak job market) which forced them to resort to dissaving and borrowing. The latter was helped by low interest rates, and these must remain low, together with sustained investment and job creation, for growth to spur in 2005. The healthy corporate financial situation should hence allow 2.2% and 2.4% GDP growth in 2005 and 2006, which would in turn lower unemployment and lead to higher wages. Risks of a setback in 2005 remain: an international slowdown or an oil crisis, more than a domestic fiscal adjustment towards a balanced budget (a strict fiscal stance would lower growth by -0.2% and 0.4% in 2005 and 2006), might impair growth.

Keywords: Politique budgétaire; Politique de l’emploi; Croissance (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2005-04
Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal-sciencespo.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-03476022
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:

Published in Revue de l'OFCE, 2005, 93, pp.79 - 123. ⟨10.3917/reof.093.0079⟩

Downloads: (external link)
https://hal-sciencespo.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-03476022/document (application/pdf)

Related works:
Working Paper: France: croissance entravée (2005)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hal:spmain:hal-03476022

DOI: 10.3917/reof.093.0079

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in SciencePo Working papers Main from HAL
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Contact - Sciences Po Departement of Economics ().