Employment discontinuity and unemployment insurance reform: what effects on jobseekers' income and return to work?

Discontinuité de l'emploi et réforme de l'assurance chômage: quels effets sur le revenu et le retour à l'emploi des demandeurs d'emploi ?

Thibaud Deguilhem (), Redha Fares, Wided Merchaoui (), Antoine Reberioux (), Camille Signoretto () and Nicolas Yol ()
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Thibaud Deguilhem: UPCité - Université Paris Cité, LADYSS - Laboratoire Dynamiques Sociales et Recomposition des Espaces - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - UP8 - Université Paris 8 - UPN - Université Paris Nanterre - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UPCité - Université Paris Cité
Redha Fares: ERUDITE - Equipe de Recherche sur l’Utilisation des Données Individuelles en lien avec la Théorie Economique - UPEC UP12 - Université Paris-Est Créteil Val-de-Marne - Paris 12 - Université Gustave Eiffel
Wided Merchaoui: CEET - Centre d'études de l'emploi et du travail - Cnam - Conservatoire National des Arts et Métiers [Cnam] - M.E.N.E.S.R. - Ministère de l'Education nationale, de l’Enseignement supérieur et de la Recherche - Ministère du Travail, de l'Emploi et de la Santé, DEPS - Département des études, de la prospective et des statistiques - MCC - Ministère de la Culture et de la Communication
Antoine Reberioux: LADYSS - Laboratoire Dynamiques Sociales et Recomposition des Espaces - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - UP8 - Université Paris 8 - UPN - Université Paris Nanterre - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UPCité - Université Paris Cité
Camille Signoretto: LADYSS - Laboratoire Dynamiques Sociales et Recomposition des Espaces - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - UP8 - Université Paris 8 - UPN - Université Paris Nanterre - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UPCité - Université Paris Cité, CEET - Centre d'études de l'emploi et du travail - Cnam - Conservatoire National des Arts et Métiers [Cnam] - M.E.N.E.S.R. - Ministère de l'Education nationale, de l’Enseignement supérieur et de la Recherche - Ministère du Travail, de l'Emploi et de la Santé, LEST - Laboratoire d'Economie et de Sociologie du Travail - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique
Nicolas Yol: EconomiX - EconomiX - UPN - Université Paris Nanterre - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po

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Abstract: This research report presents an assessment of the impact on jobseekers of the reform implemented on 1 October 2021, which changes the calculation of the Daily Wage Reference (DWR) used as the basis for calculating the Unemployment Insurance (UI) daily benefit. There are two changes to this calculation method: the reference calculation period (RCP) has been extended from 12 months to 24 months, and the calculation is no longer based solely on days worked, but on calendar days in the reference period. Our research is based on the MiDAS databases (Minima sociaux, Droit d'Assurance chômage et parcours Salariés), from France Travail, DARES and CNAF. We compare two periods: one after the reform was implemented in October and November 2021 and one before the reform was implemented in May and June 2021, the latter in order to avoid the summer period. We defined a group of ‘treated' individuals, i.e. benefit recipients who had a discontinuous career path during their RCP and were therefore likely to be affected by the reform, and another group of ‘untreated' individuals with a continuous career path. Our objective was to estimate the causal effect of the reform on the amount of DWR, the actual unemployment benefit allowance and the overall standard of living of jobseekers, on the one hand, and on the return to work, in particular on the job duration search, the duration of the new contract and the type of contract obtained, on the other. To do this, we used two methods: (i) an DWR simulation method, coupled with a difference-in-differences (DiD) method; (ii) matching using the Coarsened Exact Matching (CEM) method in order to make our two samples (before and after the reform) comparable, coupled with a DiD method using regressions (ordinary least squares, ordered probit and Cox duration models).

Keywords: Unemployment insurance; Reform impact; Jobseekers; Income; Job quality; Assurance chômage; Effets d'une réforme; Demandeurs d'emploi; Revenu; Qualité de l'emploi (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025-04
Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-05349013v1
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Published in 17, Collection "Valorisation de la recherche", Dares Ministère de l’Économie, de l’industrie et de l’emploi – Ministère du Travail, des relations sociales, de la famille, de la solidarité et de la ville. 2025

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