The direct and indirect impact of the war on inflation

Christophe Blot (), Jérôme Creel () and François Geerolf ()
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Christophe Blot: OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po
Jérôme Creel: OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po
François Geerolf: OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po, ECON - Département d'économie (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, UCLA - University of California [Los Angeles] - UC - University of California, CEPR - Center for Economic Policy Research

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Abstract: The paper explores the possible direct and indirect impacts of the Russian war in Ukraine on different measures of inflation in the euro area. It notably shows that the core inflation index is sensitive to energy and food prices, and questions its reliability for policy decisions. Finally, we discuss medium-term inflation prospects and the effectiveness of monetary policy measures.

Keywords: impact; Russian war in Ukraine; inflation; policy decisions (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023-03-16
Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://sciencespo.hal.science/hal-05615695v1
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Published in PE 741.487, European Parliament's Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs (ECON). 2023, 30 p

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hal:spmain:hal-05615695

DOI: 10.2861/13962

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