About the criteria of output coincidence for forecasts to determine the orientation of the economy (application for France, 1980-1997)

Louis de Mesnard

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Abstract: This note indicates that the method of output coincidence for forecasts used to determine if sectors are demand-driven or supply-driven in an input-output framework mixes two effects, the structural effect (choosing between demand and supply driven models) and the effect of an exogenous factor (final demand or added-value). The note recalls that another method is possible, the comparison of the stability of technical and allocation coefficients, generalized by the biproportional filter: if for a sector, after biproportional filtering, column coefficients are more stable than row coefficients, then this sector is declared as not supply-driven (but one cannot decide that it is demand-driven anyway), and conversely.

Keywords: Biproportion; Change; Demand; Economic theory; Economics; Management; Input-output; Management economics; RAS; Supply; Gestion; Economie (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2000
Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-01526521v1
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Published in [Research Report] Laboratoire d'analyse et de techniques économiques(LATEC). 2000, 21 p., Table, ref. bib. : 4 p

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Working Paper: About the criteria of output coincidence for forecasts to determine the orientation of the economy. Application for France, 1980-1997 (2000)
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