Demographic Winter, Economic Structure and Productivity in Japan

Gilles Dufrénot (), Mathilde Esposito () and Eva Moreno Galbis ()
Additional contact information
Gilles Dufrénot: CEPII - Centre d'Etudes Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales - Centre d'analyse stratégique, AMSE - Aix-Marseille Sciences Economiques - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - ECM - École Centrale de Marseille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique
Eva Moreno Galbis: AMSE - Aix-Marseille Sciences Economiques - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - ECM - École Centrale de Marseille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique

Working Papers from HAL

Abstract: Low fertility rates, mortality outstripping the birth rate and population contraction characterize a new demographic transition (the so-called "fifth stage"). This paper seeks to evaluate how this phenomenon has impacted the Japanese economic structure and overall productivity. We test two key mechanisms that have been at play since the mid-2000s: i) a growing complementarity between goods and services consumption, and ii) the substitution of older workers engaged in routine tasks with technological capital. According to Autor and Dorn's (2013) model, this should promote the concentration of low-skilled workers in the service sector, and aggravate productivity gaps between industry and services. Using stochastic frontier models and EU-KLEMS data, we compute industry-by-industry TFP growth frontiers in order to check if theoretical predictions match with Japanese reality.

Keywords: Demographic transition; productivity; technological change; economic structure; Japan (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024-10-24
Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-04752424v1
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://hal.science/hal-04752424v1/document (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-04752424

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in Working Papers from HAL
Bibliographic data for series maintained by CCSD ().