The Nexus between Oil price and Russia’s Real Exchange rate: Better Paths via Unconditional vs Conditional Analysis

Jamal Bouoiyour (), Refk Selmi, Aviral Tiwari and Muhammad Shahbaz

Working papers of CATT from HAL

Abstract: The present study deals with the nexus between oil price and Russia's real exchange rate along different econometric methods (ARDL bounds testing approach, wavelet coherency and frequency domain through Breitung and Candelon's (2006) technique). The obtained findings are highly suggestive of a sharp causal connection running from oil price to real exchange rate in lower frequencies. The reverse link is not supported. This implies that Russia should effectively tackle with short-run disturbances triggered by oil price and continue to decrease its great dependence on the energy sector via drastic and proactive measures. The economic and fiscal initiatives of Putin administration may help to better cope with sudden shocks, to reach weaker oil dependency and to create the confidence needed for economic recovery. While our research does not say much about the routes through which oil price may affect differently the real exchange rate, it clearly indicates the presence of short-term nexus conditioning upon potential control variables including GDP, governmental revenues, terms of trade and productivity differential. The unconditional analysis appears as a meaningless exercise to find a clearer relationship between the focal variables.

Keywords: Oil price; Exchange rate; Unconditional analysis; Conditional analysis; Russia (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2014-09
Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://univ-pau.hal.science/hal-01880335v1
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Related works:
Journal Article: The nexus between oil price and Russia's real exchange rate: Better paths via unconditional vs conditional analysis (2015)
Working Paper: The Nexus between Oil price and Russia’s Real Exchange rate: Better Paths via Unconditional vs Conditional Analysis (2015)
Working Paper: The Nexus between Oil price and Russia’s Real Exchange rate: Better Paths via Unconditional vs Conditional Analysis (2014)
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