Forecasting Employment Growth in Sweden Using a Bayesian VAR Model

Karine Raoufina ()
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Karine Raoufina: National Institute of Economic Research, Postal: National Institute of Economic Research, P.O. Box 3116, SE-103 62 Stockholm, Sweden, http://www.konj.se/

No 144, Working Papers from National Institute of Economic Research

Abstract: In this paper, Bayesian VAR models are used to forecast employment growth in Sweden. Using quarterly data from 1996 to 2015, we conduct an out-of-sample forecast exercise. Results indicate that the forecasting performance at short horizons can be improved when survey data is included, such as employment expectations in the business sector and forward-looking variables from the trade sector.

Keywords: Bayesian VAR model; employment forecasting (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C11 E24 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 16 pages
Date: 2016-06-08
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-for, nep-mac and nep-net
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hhs:nierwp:0144

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