Combination Forecast of Economic Chaos Based on Improved Genetic Algorithm

Yankun Yang and Wei Wang

Complexity, 2021, vol. 2021, 1-11

Abstract: The deterministic economic system will also produce chaotic dynamic behaviour, so economic chaos is getting more and more attention, and the research of economic chaos forecasting methods has become an important topic at present. The traditional economic chaos forecasting models are mostly based on large samples, but in actual production activities, there are a large number of small-sample economic chaos problems, and there is still no effective solution. This paper proposes a combined forecasting model based on the traditional economic chaos forecasting method. First of all, through the decision tree classification, priority selection of features, rough prediction is achieved. Secondly, we use BP neural network to make secondary prediction. Because the initial weight is randomly selected, it is easy to fall into the defect of local minimum. This paper optimizes the BP neural network. Finally, the decision tree model and the BP neural network model optimized by the improved genetic algorithm are combined, and the combined model is optimized by the improved GA. This method can take advantage of many prediction models and combine the prediction information of multiple different prediction models to effectively improve the fitting ability of the model and improve the prediction accuracy.

Date: 2021
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hin:complx:5544133

DOI: 10.1155/2021/5544133

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