Erwerbspersonen- und Arbeitsvolumenprojektionen bis ins Jahr 2060 (Labor force- and work volume-projections until 2060)

Daniel Ehing and Stefan Moog
Additional contact information
Daniel Ehing: Forschungszentrum Generationenverträge, Freiburg
Stefan Moog: Forschungszentrum Generationenverträge, Freiburg

Journal for Labour Market Research, 2013, vol. 46, issue 2, 167-182

Abstract: "This paper analyzes the impact of demographic change on the labor force in Germany. First, to account for observable trends in labor force participation a cohort-component model is applied to project the future development of the labor force. Based on this trend scenario we assess the impact of several policy options to counteract the demographic decline in labor supply. The policy options analyzed include an increase in the effective retirement age, a decline in the age of labor market entry, an increasing labor force participation of the elderly, raising the labor force participation of immigrants as well as a further increase in female participation rates. Second, the effects of a declining unemployment rate as well as the effects of an increase in the hours worked are examined, focusing on the overall annual work volume. Our results suggest that the annual work volume can be stabilized sufficiently. Therefore future productivity gains do not have to be eroded substantially in order to maintain the GDP per capita level of the base year 2010." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

Keywords: Bundesrepublik Deutschland; ausländische Arbeitnehmer; Auswirkungen; Beschäftigungseffekte; Bevölkerungsprognose; demografischer Wandel; Einwanderer; Erwerbsbeteiligung; Erwerbslosenquote; Erwerbspersonenpotenzial; Frauen; Lebensarbeitszeit; ältere Arbeitnehmer; Arbeitskräftemangel; Szenario; Teilzeitarbeit; Arbeitsmarktprognose; Arbeitsvolumen; Arbeitszeitverlängerung; 2009-2060 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: J11 J21 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2012-12-06
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://doi.org/10.1007/s12651-012-0126-6

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:iab:iabjlr:v:46:i:2:p:167-182

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
https://www.springer.com/economics/journal/12651

DOI: 10.1007/s12651-012-0126-6

Access Statistics for this article

Journal for Labour Market Research is currently edited by Joachim Möller et al.

More articles in Journal for Labour Market Research from Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany] Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by IAB, Geschäftsbereich Wissenschaftliche Fachinformation und Bibliothek ().