Modelling reallocation processes in long-term labour market projections

Tobias Maier, Caroline Neuber-Pohl, Anke Mönnig, Gerd Zika and Michael Kalinowski
Additional contact information
Tobias Maier: BIBB
Caroline Neuber-Pohl: BIBB
Anke Mönnig: Institute of Economic Structures Research, Osnabrueck
Gerd Zika: Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany
Michael Kalinowski: BIBB

Journal for Labour Market Research, 2017, vol. 50, issue 1, 67-90

Abstract: "Long-term labour market projections are a popular tool for assessing future skill needs and the possibility of skill shortages. It is often noted that reallocation processes in the German labour market are hindered due to its strong standardization and occupational segmentation. However, it is possible that persons leave the occupation for which they have been trained for. Disregarding such reallocations and their dynamics in the projection model is likely to distort the results and lead to inaccurate practical advice. In this article, we describe for the first time, how reallocations in the labour market can be modelled using occupational flexibility matrices and wage dynamics. Here, it is shown that employers react to labour scarcity by increasing wages to attract workers who to some extent can adjust their mobility behaviour accordingly. We analyse the aggregate impact of this implementation of a reallocation process of labour supply on the projection results by the means of scenario comparisons. Our results suggest that considering reallocations but also additionally their dynamics has substantial effects on the projection outcomes. They help draw an insightful picture of the future labour market and prevent over- or understating the potential for labour shortages in several occupations. We conclude that the assumptions about how reallocations differ by occupation and to what extent they can be realized by wage impulses is essential for projection results and their interpretation. Furthermore, we find that in the German labour market, wage adjustments cannot balance the labour demand and supply for occupations completely." (Author's abstract, © Springer-Verlag) ((en))

Keywords: Bundesrepublik Deutschland; IAB-Open-Access-Publikation; berufliche Flexibilität; berufliche Mobilität; Berufsgruppe; Fachkräftebedarf; Berufswechsel; Fachkräfte; Allokation; Lohnentwicklung; Modellentwicklung; Anpassung; Prognosemodell; Prognoseverfahren; BIBB/IAB-Qualifikations- und Berufsfeldprojektionen; Arbeitskräfteangebot; Arbeitskräftemangel; Szenario; Arbeitskräftenachfrage; Umverteilung; Arbeitsmarktprognose; 1991-2030 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: I25 J20 J21 J22 J23 J24 O11 O15 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2017-04-05
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3)

Downloads: (external link)
https://doi.org/10.1007/s12651-017-0220-x

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:iab:iabjlr:v:50:i:1:p:067-090

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
https://www.springer.com/economics/journal/12651

DOI: 10.1007/s12651-017-0220-x

Access Statistics for this article

Journal for Labour Market Research is currently edited by Joachim Möller et al.

More articles in Journal for Labour Market Research from Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany] Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by IAB, Geschäftsbereich Wissenschaftliche Fachinformation und Bibliothek ().