Complexity of agricultural commodity cycle: a chaotic time series analysis

Kenshi Sakai, Shunsuke Managi and Katsuhiko Demura

International Journal of Agricultural Resources, Governance and Ecology, 2004, vol. 3, issue 3/4, 266-287

Abstract: Most empirical investigations of agricultural markets have been conducted using linear models. Therefore, nonlinear dynamic patterns of the market cannot be predicted based on these models under any circumstances. Consequently, little is known about the role of nonlinear dynamics and the whether we can predict the market both for short- and long-term in agriculture. We utilise the real world data of piglet market data in Japan to understand nonlinear dynamics. The post-second oil crisis data showed that both short- and long-term predictions were possible with a high degree of accuracy. The pre-crisis data showed the possibility of short-term prediction, but the impossibility of long-term prediction. The results implied that the dynamics were chaotic in the pre-crisis period. Since government fixed price system was introduced after the second oil crisis, we conclude that government policy contribute to stabilise the market.

Keywords: chaos; nonlinear dynamics; empirical analysis; agricultural market; agricultural commodity cycle; complexity; Japan; piglet market data; government policy; fixed prices; market stability; sustainable development; sustainable agriculture. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2004
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.inderscience.com/link.php?id=6040 (text/html)
Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ids:ijarge:v:3:y:2004:i:3/4:p:266-287

Access Statistics for this article

More articles in International Journal of Agricultural Resources, Governance and Ecology from Inderscience Enterprises Ltd
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Sarah Parker ().