The Uzbek Growth Puzzle

Jeromin Zettelmeyer

No 1998/133, IMF Working Papers from International Monetary Fund

Abstract: After the break-up of the Soviet Union, Uzbekistan’s output fell less than in any other former Soviet Republic, and growth turned positive in 1996/97. Given the country’s hesitant and idiosyncratic approach to reforms, this record has suprised many observers. This paper first shows that a standard panel model of growth in transition systematically underpredicts Uzbek growth from 1992-1996, confirming the view that Uzbekistan’s performance consitutes a puzzle. It then attempts to resolve the puzzle by appropriately extending the model. The main result is that Uzbekistan’s output performance was driven by a combination of low initial industrialization, its cotton production, and its self-sufficiency in energy.

Keywords: WP; Uzbek growth puzzle; Uzbek output path; Uzbek experience; Uzbek growth experience; Uzbek transition experience; Uzbekistan; Transition; Growth; Output; Public Investment; Cotton; Energy; Uzbekistan country dummy variable; Agricultural commodities; Public investment spending; Structural reforms; Natural resources; Capital spending; Eastern Europe; Central Asia; Baltics (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 36
Date: 1998-09-01
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (7)

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