Determinants of the Foreign Exchange Risk Premium in Gulf Cooperation Council Countries

Tigran Poghosyan

No 2010/255, IMF Working Papers from International Monetary Fund

Abstract: This paper analyzes macroeconomic determinants of the foreign exchange risk premium in two Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries that peg their currencies to the U.S. dollar: Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. The analysis is based on the stochastic discount factor methodology, which imposes a no arbitrage condition on the relationship between the foreign exchange risk premium and its macroeconomic determinants. Estimation results suggest that U.S. inflation and consumption growth are important factors driving the risk premium, which is in line with the standard C-CAPM model. In addition, growth in international oil prices influences the risk premium, reflecting the important role played by the hydrocarbon sector in GCC economies. The methodology employed in this paper can be used for forecasting the risk premium on a monthly basis, which has important practical implications for policymakers interested in the timely monitoring of risks in the GCC.

Keywords: WP; foreign exchange; exchange rate; foreign exchange risk; time-varying risk premium; multivariate GARCH-in- Mean; GCC; foreign exchange risk premium; oil price; covariance term; obtained risk premium expression; variance-covariance matrix; Return on investment; Exchange rate risk; Oil prices; Consumption; Currencies; Global (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 24
Date: 2010-11-01
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (4)

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=24346 (application/pdf)

Related works:
Journal Article: Determinants of the Foreign Exchange Risk Premium in the Gulf Cooperation Council Countries (2012)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2010/255

Ordering information: This working paper can be ordered from
http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/pubs/ord_info.htm

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in IMF Working Papers from International Monetary Fund International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC USA. Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Akshay Modi ().