Fiscal Expectations Under the Stability and Growth Pact: Evidence from Survey Data

Marcos Poplawski Ribeiro and Jan-Christoph Rülke
Authors registered in the RePEc Author Service: Marcos Poplawski-Ribeiro

No 2011/048, IMF Working Papers from International Monetary Fund

Abstract: The paper uses survey data to analyze whether financial market expectations on government budget deficits changed in France, Germany, Italy, and the United Kingdom during the period of the Stability and Growth Pact (SGP). Our findings indicate that accuracy of financial expert deficit forecasts increased in France. Convergence between the European Commission's and market experts’ deficit forecasts also increased in France, Italy, and the United Kingdom, particularly during the period after SGP’s reform in 2005. Yet, convergence between markets’ forecasts and those of the French, German, and Italian national fiscal authorities seems not to have increased significantly during the SGP.

Keywords: WP (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 40
Date: 2011-03-01
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (15)

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