A Macroeconomic Framework for Long-Term Resilience and Growth

David Bartolini, Andrew Ceber, Valerie Cerra, Pedro Juarros, Yujin Kim, Junko Mochizuki and Christine Richmond

No 2025/135, IMF Working Papers from International Monetary Fund

Abstract: This paper describes a macroeconomic framework integrating disasters in the analysis of growth and long-term economic resilience. The framework is a dynamic growth model incorporating endogenous human and physical capital accumulation, fiscal policy interventions, and public debt dynamics. The model allows for flexible analyses of slow and fast onset climate impacts and fiscal policy reforms to foster sustainable long-term growth and adaptation, including enhanced spending on resilient investment and non-structural adaptation options. Focusing on adaptation policies, specifically on investing in resilient infrastructure, we present the country cases of Benin and Jamaica, examining tradeoffs and synergies in macro-fiscal policies for addressing sustainable long-term growth and the impacts of disasters.

Keywords: Fiscal Policy; Adaptation; Debt Sustainability; Public Investment; Natural Disasters; Economic Growth; adaptation policy scenario; reconstruction cost; model overview; SDG spending; fiscal policy intervention; public debt dynamics; Climate change; Infrastructure; Human capital; Global (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 44
Date: 2025-07-04
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