Measuring Global Trade Policy Activity

Samuele Centorrino, Antonia Diakantoni, Alexander Keck, Michele Ruta, Monika Sztajerowska and Yuting Wei

No 2025/220, IMF Working Papers from International Monetary Fund

Abstract: This paper introduces the Trade Policy Activity (TPA) Index, a novel indicator measuring evolving global trade policy dynamics since the Global Financial Crisis. Using a Dynamic Factor Model on comprehensive trade policy data covering 197 countries and territories, we document a structural shift around 2019 with a substantial expansion in the use of trade policies. The TPA Index also identifies cyclical episodes of heightened activity and reveals interconnections between different types of measures. We are also able to identify systematic differences in trade policy deployment among groups of economies. Additionally, we employ MIDAS (Mixed Data Sampling) regressions with high-frequency data to develop nowcasting capabilities for trade policy activity, enabling real-time identification of potential policy shifts. These results contribute to the trade policy measurement literature and offer a tool for monitoring global trade policy developments in real time.

Keywords: Trade Policy; Dynamic Factor Models; Nowcasting; TPA index; IMF working papers; trade policy development; trade-policy activity; private sector job creation; Factor models; Exports; Tariffs; Global (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 39
Date: 2025-10-24
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-dev and nep-int
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=571332 (application/pdf)

Related works:
Working Paper: Measuring global trade policy activity (2025)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2025/220

Ordering information: This working paper can be ordered from
http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/pubs/ord_info.htm

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in IMF Working Papers from International Monetary Fund International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC USA. Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Akshay Modi ().