Explaining Cross-Country Heterogeneity in Debt Overhang Thresholds

Rina Bhattacharya, Alexei Goumilevski, Carlos Guevara, Justin Lesniak and Flora Lutz

No 2026/051, IMF Working Papers from International Monetary Fund

Abstract: This paper estimates debt overhang thresholds separately for 105 countries using a Kalman Filter approach applied to a standard growth model. The results reveal pronounced heterogeneity in the estimated thresholds, both within and across country groups but limited time-variation. In a second step, we explore the structural factors underlying this heterogeneity. The empirical results underscore that a strong payment track record, high quality institutions and governance, public debt composition (currency, maturity, and creditor base), and financial market size and development are associated with higher pubic debt overhang thresholds.

Keywords: IMF working papers; overhang threshold; public debt composition; country group; threshold coefficient; Debt burden; Financial sector; Financial sector development; Global (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 43
Date: 2026-03-20
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-fdg
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