Wagner in the Balkans? A Comparative Analysis of Government Size and Economic Growth

Serhan Cevik and Sharayah Dominguez

No 2026/079, IMF Working Papers from International Monetary Fund

Abstract: Determining the appropriate size of government remains central for fiscal sustainability, social protection, and macroeconomic stability. Wagner’s law, formulated in the 19th century, posits that government expenditures rise with income, yet contemporary evidence is mixed. This paper revisits the relationship between economic growth and government spending in Europe over the period 1990–2024, with particular attention to the Balkans. Using an instrumental variable strategy based on trade-weighted partner growth, we find no evidence that rising income systematically expands government expenditure. On the contrary, faster growth is associated with modest declines in expenditure, particularly for current spending, while capital outlays remain largely unaffected. These patterns are stronger in high-debt countries, suggesting that fiscal rules and debt constraints increasingly shape spending decisions. The Balkan economies largely follow these trends, though heterogeneity reflects transition dynamics and EU integration. Our findings imply that Wagner’s law no longer describes spending behavior in modern European economies. Policymakers should focus less on income-driven expenditure growth and more on strengthening fiscal frameworks, improving spending efficiency, and prioritizing high-return investments in infrastructure and human capital. These measures can enhance fiscal resilience while supporting public service provision and long-term development goals.

Keywords: Government spending; economic growth; Wagner’s Law; IMF working papers; spending efficiency; debt constraint; views of the IMF; growth-government nexus; Income; Current spending; Capital spending; Population growth; Europe; Global (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 24
Date: 2026-04-10
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