Aggregate Gains from AI and Their Distribution: Global Evidence from Usage Data

Rachel Yuting Fan and Ha Nguyen

No 2026/147, IMF Working Papers from International Monetary Fund

Abstract: How large is the labor cost saved by AI, and how is it distributed across occupations? Using five waves of the Anthropic Economic Index (January 2025 to February 2026), we construct two novel measures from observed AI usage across countries over the world. The AI concentration index (ACI) shows that in developing economies, virtually all AI usage-based value is generated in a small professional enclave (ACI near 1.0); high-income economies average 0.4 to 0.5, with concentration declining in many countries. The labor cost equivalent (LCE) values the time currently saved by AI at $2.7 trillion annually (3.4% of GDP), an indicative measure of the labor cost of that time. Income and regulatory readiness predict concentration; lacking an official English language slows broadening, a barrier for developing countries.

Keywords: AI adoption; AI concentration index; occupational composition; technology diffusion; developing countries (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 36
Date: 2026-07-10
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