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Deepening EU–Western Balkans Economic Integration: Scope and Economic Gains

Lev Ratnovski

No 2026/196, IMF Working Papers from International Monetary Fund

Abstract: The paper examines opportunities for deeper economic integration between the EU and the Western Balkans and assesses their potential economic impact. It documents key non-tariff barriers to Western Balkan–EU industrial goods trade—covering regulatory, customs, and border-logistics frictions—amounting to around 8–14 percent ad valorem equivalent. Reducing these barriers, alongside deeper agri-food and services integration, could generate substantial gains, allowing the Western Balkans to capture roughly one-quarter to one-half of the economic benefits of full EU membership while supporting EU objectives related to nearshoring, supply-chain resilience, regional integration, and connectivity.

Keywords: European Union; Western Balkans; Economic Integration; Non-Tariff Barriers; Single Market; EU Enlargement; Trade Facilitation; Global Value Chains (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 24
Date: 2026-09-18
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