Using Decision Analysis to Determine the Feasibility of a Conservation Translocation

Laura M. Keating (), Lea Randall (), Rebecca Stanton (), Casey McCormack (), Michael Lucid (), Travis Seaborn (), Sarah J. Converse (), Stefano Canessa () and Axel Moehrenschlager ()
Additional contact information
Laura M. Keating: Wilder Institute/Calgary Zoo, Calgary, Alberta T2E 7V6, Canada
Lea Randall: Wilder Institute/Calgary Zoo, Calgary, Alberta T2E 7V6, Canada
Rebecca Stanton: Wilder Institute/Calgary Zoo, Calgary, Alberta T2E 7V6, Canada
Casey McCormack: Idaho Department of Fish and Game, Coeur d’Alene, Idaho 83815
Michael Lucid: Selkirk Wildlife Science LLC, Sandpoint, Idaho 83864
Travis Seaborn: Department of Fish and Wildlife Resources, University of Idaho, Moscow, Idaho 83844
Sarah J. Converse: U.S. Geological Survey, Washington Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Unit, School of Environmental and Forest Sciences & School of Aquatic and Fishery Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington 98195
Stefano Canessa: Division of Conservation Biology, University of Bern, 3012 Bern, Switzerland; International Union for Conservation of Nature Species Survival Commission Conservation Translocation Specialist Group, Calgary, Alberta T2N 1N4, Canada
Axel Moehrenschlager: International Union for Conservation of Nature Species Survival Commission Conservation Translocation Specialist Group, Calgary, Alberta T2N 1N4, Canada

Decision Analysis, 2023, vol. 20, issue 4, 295-310

Abstract: Conservation translocations, intentional movements of species to protect against extinction, have become widespread in recent decades and are projected to increase further as biodiversity loss continues worldwide. The literature abounds with analyses to inform translocations and assess whether they are successful, but the fundamental question of whether they should be initiated at all is rarely addressed formally. We used decision analysis to assess northern leopard frog reintroduction in northern Idaho, with success defined as a population that persists for at least 50 years. The Idaho Department of Fish and Game was the decision maker (i.e., the agency that will use this assessment to inform their decisions). Stakeholders from government, indigenous groups, academia, land management agencies, and conservation organizations also participated. We built an age-structured population model to predict how management alternatives would affect probability of success. In the model, we explicitly represented epistemic uncertainty around a success criterion (probability of persistence) characterized by aleatory uncertainty. For the leading alternative, the mean probability of persistence was 40%. The distribution of the modelling results was bimodal, with most parameter combinations resulting in either very low (<5%) or relatively high (>95%) probabilities of success. Along with other considerations, including cost, the Idaho Department of Fish and Game will use this assessment to inform a decision regarding reintroduction of northern leopard frogs. Conservation translocations may benefit greatly from more widespread use of decision analysis to counter the complexity and uncertainty inherent in these decisions.

Keywords: conservation translocation; feasibility assessment; northern leopard frog; reintroduction; structured decision making (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
http://dx.doi.org/10.1287/deca.2023.0472 (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:inm:ordeca:v:20:y:2023:i:4:p:295-310

Access Statistics for this article

More articles in Decision Analysis from INFORMS Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Chris Asher ().