Adversarial Risk Analysis: The Somali Pirates Case

Juan Carlos Sevillano (), David Rios Insua () and Jesus Rios ()
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Juan Carlos Sevillano: Universidad Complutense de Madrid, 28040 Madrid, Spain
David Rios Insua: Royal Academy of Sciences, 28004 Madrid, Spain
Jesus Rios: IBM T.J. Watson Research Center, Yorktown Heights, New York 10598

Decision Analysis, 2012, vol. 9, issue 2, 86-95

Abstract: We show how adversarial risk analysis may cope with a current important security issue in relation with piracy off the Somali coasts. Specifically, we describe how to support the owner of a ship in managing risks from piracy in that area. We illustrate how a sequential defend--attack--defend model can be used to formulate this decision problem and solve it for the ship owner. Our formulation models the pirates' behavior through the analysis of how they could solve their decision problem.

Keywords: applications; security; adversarial risk analysis; defender--attacker models; piracy; practice (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2012
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (15)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:inm:ordeca:v:9:y:2012:i:2:p:86-95

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