Estimating the Impact of Uncertainty on a Deterministic Multiattribute Evaluation

Craig W. Kirkwood
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Craig W. Kirkwood: Department of Decision and Information Systems, Arizona State University, Tempe, Arizona 85287-4206

Management Science, 1992, vol. 38, issue 6, 819-826

Abstract: A method is presented to estimate the impact of uncertainty on the results of a multiattribute evaluation prior to conducting a complete probabilistic multiattribute utility analysis. The method assumes that a deterministic analysis has been completed using a weighted-additive multiattribute value (evaluation) function and that either an additive or multiplicative utility function is appropriate for the multiattribute utility analysis. An approximation procedure is developed to estimate whether uncertainty about attribute levels could change the deterministic evaluation results. An illustrative application investigates the accuracy of the procedure and its use to simplify analysis of the effects of uncertainty.

Keywords: multiattribute utility theory; multiobjective decision analysis; evaluation; decision analysis; approximations (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 1992
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