Analytic Expressions for the Probability of Penetrating a Point Defense

Girard L. Ordway and Henry M. Rosenstock
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Girard L. Ordway: Operations Research, Inc., Silver Spring, Maryland
Henry M. Rosenstock: Operations Research, Inc., Silver Spring, Maryland

Operations Research, 1963, vol. 11, issue 1, 40-56

Abstract: A method is developed for computing the probability that an air attack will penetrate a point defense made by a surface-to-air missile system. Analytic expressions are obtained from a model for the probability of penetration by at least one of k attackers, as a function of k and of the spacing between successive attackers, the number of shots that can be made at an approaching attacker, and the single-shot kill probability of the defensive missiles. The mean number of attackers required for penetration can be approximated very closely by a formula that is valid throughout the range of tactical interest.

Date: 1963
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