A Probabilistic Model for Obsolescence

Philip M. Morse and Caroline Elston
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Philip M. Morse: Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, Massachusetts
Caroline Elston: Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, Massachusetts

Operations Research, 1969, vol. 17, issue 1, 36-47

Abstract: A Markovian model is presented of a class of items with use-rate that is randomly distributed and with mean use or popularity that diminishes exponentially with time. Tables are given of the functions involved. As an example, it is shown that the yearly circulation of books in a library corresponds to the model, thus enabling circulation characteristics of various book classes to be predicted probabilistically.

Date: 1969
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