A Task Force Decision Analysis

Richard D. Smallwood and Peter A. Morris
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Richard D. Smallwood: Applied Decision Analysis, Inc., Menlo Park, California
Peter A. Morris: Applied Decision Analysis, Inc., Menlo Park, California

Operations Research, 1980, vol. 28, issue 1, 60-80

Abstract: This paper describes the process and content of a major decision analysis performed for a Xerox corporate task force. The decision, which crossed many traditional organizational boundaries, concerned whether new manufacturing facilities should be constructed to produce consumables for a new Xerox product; and if so, when. One of our roles as analysts for the task force was to serve as the communication channel to the many organizations involved in the decision. The paper focuses on the process by which we were able to use decision analysis to resolve the many conflicting issues surrounding the problem. The mathematical model constructed for the decision analysis was the key element in accomplishing these tasks, and several of the component models are described in some detail. Several interesting aspects of the sensitivity analysis are outlined, including a scenario analysis that eliminated the need for a detailed treatment of uncertainty. The final recommendations to the task force, which were accepted, are also described.

Date: 1980
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