Cumulative economic impact of upcoming trade agreements on EU agriculture

Emanuele Ferrari, Christian Elleby (), Beyhan de Jong, Robert M'barek and Ignacio Perez Dominguez ()
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Christian Elleby: European Commission – JRC, https://joint-research-centre.ec.europa.eu/index_en
Robert M'barek: European Commission – JRC, https://joint-research-centre.ec.europa.eu/index_en
Ignacio Perez Dominguez: European Commission – JRC, https://joint-research-centre.ec.europa.eu/index_en

No JRC135540, JRC Research Reports from Joint Research Centre

Abstract: This study investigates the potential effects of 10 upcoming free trade agreements (FTAs) under the current EU trade agenda. It quantifies the cumulative sectoral impacts in terms of bilateral trade, production, demand and price developments. Moreover, it provides insights into the evolution of supply, demand and farm-gate prices for the most relevant EU agricultural commodity markets. In contrast to a forecast exercise, this analysis compares two variants of a trade liberalisation scenario (conservative and ambitious) with a business-as-usual (baseline) situation in 2032, including an analysis of the effects of the UK trade agenda on EU agri-food trade. The study confirms that the analysed FTAs have the potential to benefit the EU agri-food sector, especially the dairy, pigmeat, processed food and beverages sectors. It also highlights the vulnerability of the beef, sheep meat, poultry meat, sugar and rice sectors.

Keywords: Trade; EU; general equilibrium model; partial equilibrium model (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C68 F11 Q17 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 111 pages
Date: 2024-02
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-agr, nep-eec and nep-int
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ipt:iptwpa:jrc135540

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