Scenar 2040

Thomas Fellmann (), Gianmaria Tassinari (), Jesus Lasarte Lopez (), Dolores Rey Vicario (), Caetano Beber (), Ana Luisa Barbosa (), Beyhan De Jong (), Emanuele Ferrari, Alexander Gocht, Ancuta Isbasoiu, Ana Klinnert (), Dimitrios Kremmydas, Robert M'barek, George Philippidis, Bartlomiej Rokicki (), Pascal Tillie (), Franz Weiss () and Giampiero Genovese ()
Additional contact information
Thomas Fellmann: European Commission - JRC, https://joint-research-centre.ec.europa.eu/index_en
Gianmaria Tassinari: European Commission - JRC, https://joint-research-centre.ec.europa.eu/index_en
Jesus Lasarte Lopez: European Commission - JRC, https://joint-research-centre.ec.europa.eu/index_en
Dolores Rey Vicario: European Commission - JRC, https://joint-research-centre.ec.europa.eu/index_en
Caetano Beber: European Commission - JRC, https://joint-research-centre.ec.europa.eu/index_en
Ana Luisa Barbosa: European Commission - JRC, https://joint-research-centre.ec.europa.eu/index_en
Beyhan De Jong: European Commission - JRC, https://joint-research-centre.ec.europa.eu/index_en
Ana Klinnert: European Commission - JRC, https://joint-research-centre.ec.europa.eu/index_en
Robert M'barek: European Commission - JRC, https://joint-research-centre.ec.europa.eu/index_en
Bartlomiej Rokicki: European Commission - JRC, https://joint-research-centre.ec.europa.eu/index_en
Pascal Tillie: European Commission - JRC, https://joint-research-centre.ec.europa.eu/index_en
Franz Weiss: European Commission - JRC, https://joint-research-centre.ec.europa.eu/index_en
Giampiero Genovese: European Commission - JRC, https://joint-research-centre.ec.europa.eu/index_en

No JRC142503, JRC Research Reports from Joint Research Centre

Abstract: "The Scenar 2040 study provides a comprehensive analysis of the potential impacts of two hypothetical scenarios related to the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) on the EU agricultural sector and its broader environment. The baseline (reference scenario) is calibrated to the 2023 EU Agricultural Outlook, and the current national CAP Strategic Plans serve as starting point for the shifts in the policy scenarios. In the first scenario support is directed towards CAP measures enhancing productivity and competitiveness, whereas the second scenario shifts support towards more environmental and climate-focused interventions. The study also includes a counterfactual NoCAP scenario, simulating the removal of the entire CAP framework. The study aims to contribute to policy discussions on the future of the CAP by providing quantitative insights into the general implications of alternative CAP trajectories.The scenario results underscore the CAP’s essential role for the EU’s agricultural sector and its broader socio-economic and environmental interlinkages across territories. The results indicate that the removal of the CAP framework would have considerable heterogeneous economic, environmental, and social impacts across the EU. The two alternative CAP scenarios reveal contrasted outcomes aligned with their respective narratives. The results highlight the CAP’s critical role, the complexity involved in balancing competing objectives, and confirm market fundamentals as primary drivers of production, although policy can significantly modulate outcomes."

Date: 2025-10
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-eec and nep-inv
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