Outlook and demographic perspectives for EU’s rural regions. A modelling-based exercise

Riccardo Curtale (), Martijn Stut (), Alfredo Alessandrini, Christoph Deuster (), Filipe Batista E Silva (), Fabrizio Natale () and Lewis Dijkstra
Additional contact information
Riccardo Curtale: European Commission - JRC, https://joint-research-centre.ec.europa.eu/index_en
Martijn Stut: European Commission - JRC, https://joint-research-centre.ec.europa.eu/index_en
Christoph Deuster: European Commission - JRC, https://joint-research-centre.ec.europa.eu/index_en
Filipe Batista E Silva: European Commission - JRC, https://joint-research-centre.ec.europa.eu/index_en
Fabrizio Natale: European Commission - JRC, https://joint-research-centre.ec.europa.eu/index_en

No 2025-01, JRC Working Papers on Territorial Modelling and Analysis from Joint Research Centre

Abstract: The European Union is experiencing profound demographic shifts. This paper presents an analysis of observed population trends encompassing observations for the period 2000-2022 and projections until 2040 at the NUTS3 level. The projections were obtained by regionalizing the 2021 Ageing Report’s demographic projections using the Demography-Economy-Land use interaction (DELi) model, which considers explicitly the interlinkages between demographic and economic dynamics. Results show that urban regions are expected to increase their populations primarily due to economic opportunities pulling migrants, while intermediate and rural regions are projected to face population decline, with remote rural regions being the most affected. The natural change rate is trending downwards across all regional typologies, while the net migration rate, historically positive in all typologies, is projected to compensate for the natural change only in urban regions. The implications of these demographic changes are far-reaching, affecting labour markets, public service provision, and economic growth. The paper discusses the potential for regional convergence in GDP per capita, particularly in rural regions close to cities, and the challenges posed by changes in the demographic structure, affected by increasing old age dependency ratio and a shrinking working-age population, and the need for adaptation.

Date: 2025-01
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-age, nep-eec and nep-eur
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ipt:termod:202501

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