Does Hotter Temperature Increase Poverty? Global Evidence from Subnational Data Analysis

Hai-Anh Dang () and Trong-Anh Trinh

No 15326, IZA Discussion Papers from IZA Network @ LISER

Abstract: Despite a vast literature documenting the negative effects of climate change on various socio-economic outcomes, little, if any, evidence exists on the global impacts of hotter temperature on poverty. Analyzing a new global dataset of subnational poverty in 166 countries, we find higher temperature to increase poverty. This finding is robust to various model specifications, data samples, and measures of temperature. Our preferred specification shows that a 1˚C increase leads to a 2.1 percent increase in the headcount poverty rate, using the US$ 1.90 daily poverty threshold. Regional heterogeneity exists, with Sub-Saharan African countries being most vulnerable to higher temperature. We find suggestive evidence that reduction in crop yields could be a key channel that explains the effects of rising temperature. Further simulation indicate that global warming can significantly increase poverty, with more pronounced effects occurring in poorer regions and under scenarios of higher greenhouse gas emissions without mitigation policies.

Keywords: poverty; global warming; climate change; agriculture (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: I32 O1 Q54 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 64 pages
Date: 2022-05
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-agr, nep-dev, nep-ene and nep-env
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

Forthcoming - published as ''Impacts of Global Warming on Subnational Poverty and Inequality' in: Nature Climate Change, 2026, 16 (2), 207–213 (with Stephane Hallegatte, and Minh Cong Nguyen)

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Related works:
Working Paper: Does Hotter Temperature Increase Poverty? Global Evidence from Subnational Data Analysis (2022)
Working Paper: Does Hotter Temperature Increase Poverty? Global Evidence from Subnational Data Analysis (2022)
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