Business Cycle Turning Points and Local Labour Markets

Karl Taylor, Soumya Bhadury, Jane Binner and Anandadeep Mandal
Additional contact information
Soumya Bhadury: 2Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB)
Jane Binner: University of Birmingham
Anandadeep Mandal: University of Birmingham

No 17153, IZA Discussion Papers from Institute of Labor Economics (IZA)

Abstract: In this paper we consider the predictors of the business cycle in Great Britain, where the claimant count and unemployment rate are found to be key indicators associated with turning points. Next, we consider at a micro-economic level, using disaggregated local authority level data, a number of local labour market issues: (i) the determinants of the claimant count and unemployment rate (both highly correlated with the cycle); (ii) local level economic resilience; and (iii) the likelihood of different states of regional vulnerability. Benefit generosity, unit labour costs and state dependence (hysteresis) are key drivers of local labour market performance.

Keywords: business cycle dating; local labour markets; resilience; regional vulnerability (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E24 E32 J20 R10 R23 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 46 pages
Date: 2024-07
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-geo, nep-lma and nep-ure
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