Is Drug-Related Violence Fueling Emigration from Central America?

Leonardo Bonilla-Mejía (), Jessica Bracco (), Andrés Ham and Leonardo Peñaloza-Pacheco
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Leonardo Bonilla-Mejía: Banco de la República de Colombia
Jessica Bracco: CEDLAS-UNLP

No 18028, IZA Discussion Papers from Institute of Labor Economics (IZA)

Abstract: We study how drug-related violence affects emigration from Central America, a region with rapidly rising migration to the United States. Using multiple data sources, we apply an instrumental variables strategy based on proximity to drug-trafficking routes and coca production in Colombia. We find that violence significantly increases intentions, plans, and preparations to emigrate—especially to the U.S.—with stronger effects among young and high-skilled individuals. Mediation analysis suggests this response is driven by declining economic activity and, more importantly, deteriorating labor market conditions caused by escalating violence.

Keywords: drug trafficking; violence; economic activity; labor markets; migration (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: J61 N96 O15 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025-07
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-inv and nep-lab
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