Guaranteed Minimum Income and Fertility

Giuseppe Dachille (), Maria De Paola () and Roberto Nistico ()
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Giuseppe Dachille: University of Rome Tor Vergata
Maria De Paola: University of Calabria
Roberto Nistico: University of Naples Federico II

No 18105, IZA Discussion Papers from Institute of Labor Economics (IZA)

Abstract: We study the fertility effects of Italy’s Reddito di Cittadinanza (RdC), a national minimum income program introduced in 2019. Exploiting administrative data from the Italian Social Security Institute and a Fuzzy Regression Discontinuity Design, we document that RdC increased recipients’ childbirth probability by 1.5 percentage points (18%) over two years in the South, with no effect in the Centre-North. Labor supply declined by 10%, but only in the Centre-North. Regional heterogeneity reflects differences in gender norms, financial constraints, and opportunity costs of childbearing. Our findings highlight how income transfers interact with local context to shape demographic and labor market behavior.

Keywords: RDD; fertility; guaranteed minimum income (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C21 H53 J13 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025-09
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-dem, nep-eur and nep-lab
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