Intergenerational Welfare Persistence: Causal Evidence from Vietnam-Era Draft Lotteries

Nathan Deutscher () and Peter Siminski ()
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Nathan Deutscher: Australian National University
Peter Siminski: University of Technology Sydney

No 18876, IZA Discussion Papers from IZA Network @ LISER

Abstract: We contribute to understanding the causal mechanisms of intergenerational welfare persistence. We study veterans’ pensions, leveraging Australia’s Vietnam-era draft lotteries for identification and over three decades of administrative data with universal coverage. Deployed service increased veterans’ expected welfare receipt by 7.5 years (100.5%) and reduced employment (3.2 years; 30.2%). Effects for veterans’ spouses were qualitatively similar and approximately half as large. How did this affect their children? Despite high statistical power, we find almost no lasting effects on child outcomes, including welfare, employment, income, education, partnering and fertility. Direct estimates of causal intergenerational welfare elasticities are precise zeros, highlighting that welfare receipthttps://legacy.iza.org/en/webcontent/personnel/photos/personal_menu does not always spill over to the next generation.

Keywords: intergenerational mobility; welfare dependency; veterans’ benefits; disability pensions; conscription; labour supply (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: H53 H55 H56 I38 J22 J62 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2026-08
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-his, nep-lma and nep-mid
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