Estimating Spatio-Temporal Risks from Volcanic Eruptions Using an Agent-Based Model

J Jumadi (), Nicolas Malleson (), Steve Carver () and Duncan Quincey ()
Additional contact information
J Jumadi: https://publons.com/researcher/1642424/j-jumadi/
Nicolas Malleson: https://environment.leeds.ac.uk/geography/staff/1069/dr-nick-malleson
Steve Carver: https://www.geog.leeds.ac.uk/people/s.carver
Duncan Quincey: https://www.geog.leeds.ac.uk/people/d.quincey

Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, 2020, vol. 23, issue 2, 2

Abstract: Managing disasters caused by natural events, especially volcanic crises, requires a range of approaches, including risk modelling and analysis. Risk modelling is commonly conducted at the community/regional scale using GIS. However, people and objects move in response to a crisis, so static approaches cannot capture the dynamics of the risk properly, as they do not accommodate objects’ movements within time and space. The emergence of Agent-Based Modelling makes it possible to model the risk at an individual level as it evolves over space and time. We propose a new approach of Spatio-Temporal Dynamics Model of Risk (STDMR) by integrating multi-criteria evaluation (MCE) within a georeferenced agent-based model, using Mt. Merapi, Indonesia, as a case study. The model makes it possible to simulate the spatio-temporal dynamics of those at risk during a volcanic crisis. Importantly, individual vulnerability is heterogeneous and depends on the characteristics of the individuals concerned. The risk for the individuals is dynamic and changes along with the hazard and their location. The model is able to highlight a small number of high-risk spatio-temporal positions where, due to the behaviour of individuals who are evacuating the volcano and the dynamics of the hazard itself, the overall risk in those times and places is extremely high. These outcomes are extremely relevant for the stakeholders, and the work of coupling an ABM, MCE, and dynamic volcanic hazard is both novel and contextually relevant.

Keywords: ABM; Volcanic Crisis; Risk Estimation; Spatio-Temporal Modeling; MCE; Merapi (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020-03-31
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.jasss.org/23/2/2/2.pdf (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:jas:jasssj:2016-190-4

Access Statistics for this article

More articles in Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation from Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Francesco Renzini ().