[In]Credible Models – Verification, Validation & Accreditation of Agent-Based Models to Support Policy-Making

Michael Belfrage (), Emil Johansson (), Fabian Lorig () and Paul Davidsson ()
Additional contact information
Michael Belfrage: https://mau.se/en/persons/michael.belfrage/
Emil Johansson: https://mau.se/en/persons/emil.johansson/
Fabian Lorig: https://mau.se/personer/fabian.lorig/
Paul Davidsson: https://mau.se/personer/paul.davidsson/

Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, 2024, vol. 27, issue 4, 4

Abstract: This paper explores the issue of model credibility of agent-based models and how it should be evaluated prior to application in policy-making. Specifically, the paper analyses related literature from different fields: (1) to establish a definition of model credibility – a measure of confidence in the model’s inferential capability – and (2) to assess how model credibility can be strengthened through Verification, Validation, and Accreditation (VV&A) prior to application and through post-application evaluation. Several studies have highlighted seriousshortcomings in how V&V of agent-based models is performed and documented, and few public administrations have an established model accreditation process. To address the first issue, we examine the literature on model V&V and, based on this review, introduce and outline the use of a V&V plan. To address the second issue, we draw inspiration from a practical use case of model accreditation applied by a government institution to propose a framework for the accreditation of agent-based models for policy-making. The paper concludes with a discussion of the risks associated with inappropriate assessments of model credibility.

Keywords: Policy-Modelling; Model Credibility; Accreditation; VV&A; Agent-Based Modelling & Simulation; ABM4Policy (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024-10-31
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.jasss.org/27/4/4/4.pdf (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:jas:jasssj:2023-174-3

Access Statistics for this article

More articles in Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation from Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Francesco Renzini ().