Generating a Contact Matrix for Aged Care Settings in Australia: An Agent-Based Model Study

Haley Stone (), Mohana Kunasekaran (), Christopher Poulos (), C. Raina MacIntyre () and David Heslop ()

Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, 2026, vol. 29, issue 2, 7

Abstract: Understanding infectious disease transmission in institutional settings requires modelling approaches that can represent how contacts arise from structured routines, roles, and spatial constraints. In aged care facilities, interactions are shaped by care delivery processes, staff scheduling, and resident mobility, producing contact patterns that differ fundamentally from those assumed in population-level models. However, standard contact matrices used in epidemiological modelling are typically derived from general population surveys and do not capture these institutional mechanisms. This study develops an agent-based modelling framework to generate high-resolution contact matrices for aged care facilities by simulating task-driven behaviour, staff workflows, and movement through shared spaces. Rather than prescribing contact structure, interactions emerge endogenously from scheduled activities and proximity during task execution. The model is parameterised using collected activity-diary data from aged care workers and is implemented with behavioural logic decoupled from the physical layout, allowing adaptation to alternative facility designs without modifying core mechanisms. Simulation results show pronounced heterogeneity in contact patterns across resident care levels and staff shifts. Low and medium care residents exhibited substantially higher contact frequencies than high care residents, while staff working day and afternoon shifts accounted for the majority of resident–staff interactions. Temporal analyses revealed clustering of contacts around structured daily routines, including meals and communal activities. Integrating a proximity-based airborne transmission component parameterised for SARS-CoV-2 demonstrated that transmission risk was concentrated during high-contact shifts and among more mobile resident groups. Vaccination scenarios reduced predicted transmission substantially, with the greatest reductions observed when both staff and residents were vaccinated. By explicitly linking organisational processes to emergent contact structure, this framework provides a reproducible and transferable approach to contact matrix generation for institutional environments. The model supports more realistic transmission modelling and offers a basis for evaluating targeted infection control strategies in high-risk care settings.

Keywords: Infectious Disease Transmission; Agent-Based Modelling; Epidemiological Modelling; Aged Care; Risk (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2026-03-31
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:jas:jasssj:2025-146-2

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