Geographical Simulation Analysis of Uzbekistan’s International Logistics Strategy: Corridor Diversification to Overcome the Constraints of Double Landlocked Geography

Satoru Kumagai, Ikumo Isono and Kenmei Tsubota

No 1002, IDE Discussion Papers from Institute of Developing Economies, Japan External Trade Organization(JETRO)

Abstract: Using the Institute of Developing Economies-Geographical Simulation Model, this study conducted a geographical simulation analysis of Uzbekistan’s international logistics strategy, focusing on corridor diversifications as a means to overcome the constraints of its double-landlocked geography. Under heightened geopolitical uncertainty and the fragmentation of Eurasian logistics networks, Uzbekistan faces critical challenges in seaport access, increasing transportation costs and prolonging lead times. This study quantitatively evaluated the impact of major infrastructure projects—including the Trans-Afghan Railway and the China–Kyrgyzstan–Uzbekistan (CKU) Railway—on regional and global economies. Simulation results suggest that comprehensive infrastructure development significantly strengthens Uzbekistan as a regional hub, amplifying beneficial economic spillover effects throughout Central Asia, but potential risks include the adverse impact of large-scale projects such as the CKU Railway on domestic industries because of increased imports. The findings highlight the need to combine strategic corridor development, border facilitation and domestic infrastructure improvement, alongside regulatory reforms and productivity enhancement, to ensure long-term and sustainable growth.

Keywords: Infrastructure; developmentlInternational; logistics (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: F15 O18 R42 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2026-03
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Published in IDE Discussion Paper = IDE Discussion Paper, No.1002. 2026-03

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