Trapped by Dependence: Myanmar’s Trade Structure and Economic Vulnerability

Aung Set

No 1010, IDE Discussion Papers from Institute of Developing Economies, Japan External Trade Organization(JETRO)

Abstract: This paper examines the structural roots of Myanmar’s external trade dependence and associated policy weaknesses. Despite its strategic location, the economy remains narrowly diversified and reliant on a few partners, notably China and Thailand. Using mirror trade data and Herfindahl–Hirschman-based indices, the study analyzes product and market diversification across the USDP (2011–2015), NLD (2016–2020), and SAC/SSPC (2021–2024) periods. Results show that recent export diversification reflects redistribution within existing products rather than industrial upgrading, while import dependence has become increasingly concentrated. Empirical evidence also indicates that reliance on China for imports intensified after the 2021 coup. These findings underscore the need for stronger policy coordination, industrial development, and broader economic diversification.

Keywords: Myanmar|Economic; policy|Economic; Security|Trade; Dependence (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2026-05
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Published in IDE Discussion Paper = IDE Discussion Paper, No.1010. 2026-05

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