Heterogeneous Effects of US Tariffs under the Second Trump Administration on Export Quantities and Prices

Youngmin Baek, Kazunobu Hayakawa, Tadashi Ito and Hiroshi Mukunoki

No 1014, IDE Discussion Papers from Institute of Developing Economies, Japan External Trade Organization(JETRO)

Abstract: This study examines the effects of the additional tariffs introduced under the second Trump administration on global trade patterns using monthly export data from 31 exporting countries to 68 high-income destinations between January 2023 and December 2025. Using six-digit HS export data and exploiting variation across products and countries, we empirically investigate how tariffs have affected export values, quantities, and prices. The main finding is that US tariffs reduce export values primarily through declines in export prices rather than quantities, indicating that exporters absorb a substantial share of the tariff burden. More importantly, the study reveals substantial heterogeneity in tariff responses across exporters and products. First, these adverse impacts are more pronounced for consumption goods, products with a lower degree of trade relationship stickiness, and products for which China holds a high initial market share in the US. Second, exporters of differentiated goods experience smaller decreases in export values due to a smaller decline in export prices. Third, the adverse effects are mitigated for exporting countries that maintain a larger presence in or a higher structural dependence on the US market.

Keywords: Trump; 2.0|Tariffs|Diversification (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: F15 F53 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2026-09
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Published in IDE Discussion Paper = IDE Discussion Paper, No.1014. 2026-09

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