Eclipse: How Darkness Shapes Violence in Africa

Kyosuke Kikuta

No 941, IDE Discussion Papers from Institute of Developing Economies, Japan External Trade Organization(JETRO)

Abstract: Although darkness has long been associated with insecurity, the link remains speculative. I fill the gap by examining the effect of solar eclipses on political violence. Expanding on psychological theories, I hypothesize that eclipse-induced darkness evokes fear, which in turn is misattributed to outgroups, thereby triggering violence. I contrast this argument with a tactical explanation, suggesting that darkness allows insurgents to secretly kill civilians. I test these hypotheses by exploiting exogenous variations in the dates and locations of solar eclipses for 1997–2022 in Africa. The analysis indicates a spike in violence on the days of solar eclipses. To explore the mechanisms, I examine the initiators and original texts of violent events, weather conditions, ethnic folklore, and individual-level surveys. The analyses support the tactical rather than psychological explanation. These findings warn against assuming that “irrational” or “superstitious” African people overreacted to eclipses; insurgents rationally used darkness for their tactical purposes.

Keywords: Eclipse; Darkness; Violence; Conflict; Africa; Natural experiment (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024-08
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Published in IDE Discussion Paper = IDE Discussion Paper, No.941. 2024-08

Downloads: (external link)
https://ir.ide.go.jp/record/2001094/files/IDP000941_001.pdf First version, 2024 (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:jet:dpaper:dpaper941

Ordering information: This working paper can be ordered from
Publication Office, IDE 3-2-2 Wakaba, Mihama-ku, Chiba-shi, Chiba 261-8545 JAPAN
http://www.ide.go.jp/English/Publish/Order

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in IDE Discussion Papers from Institute of Developing Economies, Japan External Trade Organization(JETRO) Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Michitaka Imamitsu ().