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Unintended Effects of Germany’s Nuclear Phase Out: A Rise in Mortality Due to Non-Communicable Respiratory Diseases

Tuomas Kaariaho ()
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Tuomas Kaariaho: Department of Economics and Management, University of Helsinki

Environmental & Resource Economics, 2025, vol. 88, issue 8, No 4, 2085-2123

Abstract: Abstract The discussion on nuclear power balances its risks against carbon emissions resulting from nuclear phase-out. This paper studies an important unintended consequence of abandoning nuclear power: the adverse health effects of increased air pollutants. I use the synthetic control method to study the causal effect of the German nuclear phase-out on mortality. I find that the nuclear plant closures resulted in 17 life years lost each year per 100,000 inhabitants or roughly 170 premature deaths per year from non-communicable respiratory diseases. This effect accounts for an 8% increase in mortality due to respiratory diseases and corresponds to around one billion euros per year in lost lives.

Keywords: Health effects; Public health; Mortality; Air pollution; Nuclear power; Synthetic control method; I12; I18; K32; Q51; Q53 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.1007/s10640-025-01002-z

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