Long live globalization: geopolitical shocks and international trade

Serhan Cevik

International Economics and Economic Policy, 2025, vol. 22, issue 2, No 7, 20 pages

Abstract: Abstract Are we really witnessing the death of globalization caused by geopolitical fragmentation? Using an extensive dataset, I develop an augmented gravity model of bilateral trade flows among 59,049 country-pairs over the period 1948–2021 and find that the much-debated geopolitical distance between countries has contradictory and statistically insignificant effects on international trade, depending on the level of economic development. Moreover, the economic magnitude of this effect is not as important as income or geographic distance, and it diminishes significantly when extreme outliers are removed from the sample. The real threats confronting the world economy are therefore predatory mercantilism and coercive protectionism with an aggressive use of tariffs that could destabilize economic development and cause greater inequality.

Keywords: Globalization; International trade; Gravity model; Geopolitics (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C23 C33 F14 F15 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10368-025-00660-0 Abstract (text/html)
Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

Related works:
Working Paper: Long Live Globalization: Geopolitical Shocks and International Trade (2023)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:kap:iecepo:v:22:y:2025:i:2:d:10.1007_s10368-025-00660-0

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.springer. ... cs/journal/10368/PS2

DOI: 10.1007/s10368-025-00660-0

Access Statistics for this article

International Economics and Economic Policy is currently edited by Paul J.J. Welfens, Holger C. Wolf, Christian Pierdzioch and Christian Richter

More articles in International Economics and Economic Policy from Springer
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Sonal Shukla () and Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing ().